| Roulette: Are You Bias? By Jeff Murphy ID:20401 |
Сб, 7 октября 2006 12:07 [#] [») |
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Еще одна интересная статья, о "кривых" колесах.
Roulette: Are You Bias?
By Jeff Murphy
I have the honor of leading the best surveillance department in the world. Yes, we are only a mid-sized tribal casino located in Oregon, but our people, the level of training they possess, and our technological advances into the digital realm have made us hard to beat. In fact the top two finishers in this year's World Game Protection Conference- Card Count Challenge came from Seven Feathers Hotel & Casino Resort. Am I biased? Well, I suppose I am.
A bias is by definition a prejudice. What causes bias? In my case it has been the opportunity to work with a team of incredible surveillance professionals. In the case of the gaming industry, it is a predetermined bias called the house advantage. Does gaming have other biases? We are defining bias from a gaming perspective as an irregularity in gaming equipment that causes a preference or a "prejudice" in the results of the game. Does gaming equipment have a bias? Our team attacked this very question regarding the game of roulette.
In the past we have audited roulette by monitoring a dealer and tracking 60 spins while marking the point on a picture of a wheel head. This was performed once a week for each of our roulette tables. We believed in the past as we do currently that all surveillance departments should perform regular audits of gaming but the audits should make sense and answer key questions. What is this audit accomplishing? How many spins of a roulette wheel will indicate a problem? Do we have a problem on our roulette tables? We really had absolutely no idea but early into our roulette study realized this audit wasn't productive.
We expanded our scope (still monitoring the dealers) and increased our spin audit to 1,000 spins. Our findings were incredible. Our dealers were targeting numbers and controlling their spins to hit these certain locations. We had documented proof that some of our dealers were cheating us blind. The numbers were accurate. We could without doubt prove a pattern was happening and at least four of our roulette dealers were crooked. It was "Take Down of the month" time and the dealers were going to be terminated, lose their gaming licenses and possibly face charges. This would be an excellent conclusion if it did not go against every belief I have regarding the gaming business.
To successfully perform a target location spin three components would need to be perfect each time. The dealer's release and spin speed, the speed of the wheel head and the bounce of the ball would virtually need to be equal each and every time. There may be someone out there in the industry that possesses these high level skills. I'm not going to say there isn't.... BUT I will drink one of those awful fish eye and cow intestine shakes like on the television show Fear Factor, if you can find and prove that there are ten people in the entire casino industry that could target location spins consistently (if at all). That said we have four dealers possessing those skills at our casino. Right....... Our dealers are good, but come on!
Muscle memory is a terminology used to describe the phenomenon of skeletal muscle activity that is learned and becomes automatic with practice. For example, walking is automatic and takes no real cognitive effort. In the case of the roulette dealer this would refer to the dealer's ball spin and wheel head spin being automatic. Sounds interesting but there are still those three important factors: the dealer's spin, the speed of the wheel and the ball bounce that would need to be perfectly equal every single time. There are also parts added to a roulette wheel that help prevent issues like muscle memory and target location theories, such as the canoes, frets, cone, and turret. Chances are slim to none for the muscle memory theory to ever be a predominate factor.
Where do we go from here? We again expanded our scope adding our 1,000 spin audits together. This is where the real patterns started to reveal themselves. We reached 10,000 spins and certain numbers of our roulette wheel began to really appear prejudiced or biased. We began tracking these certain numbers and keeping record of our win and loss percentages for these numbers utilizing table limit minimum bets of $1 and maximum bets of $25 placed as straight up wagers only.
At 20,000 spins in our audit if a person wagered the three numbers we targeted as problem numbers, that person would have won respectively $5,304 with $1 wagered on each number and $132,600 wagering $25 on those dedicated numbers. Hmmm, not a bad profit!
O.K., for the mathematicians that are reading here is a nuts and bolts breakdown:
Out of 20,504 spins, each number should on average "hit" or become the point 539.6 times. 20,504 spins divided by the number of straight up wagers (38) on a roulette table. Now let's look at our three targeted problem numbers. By taking the actual number of hits for a winning number and multiplying it by 35 your win for that hit will be established. The loss still needs to be accounted for and this is done by subtracting the remaining non-winning hits from the total spins. The remaining number is the actual win or profit from the number. Here are our biased numbers and potential financial profit achieved from playing these numbers:
<img src=" http://forum.cgm.ru/attachments/roulette/48299-roulette-_are_you_bias-_by_jeff_murphy-grap h2.jpg" border="0" alt="Название: graph2.jpg
Просмотров: 523
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Number (times hit) Minimum Bet Amount Won Maximum Bet Amount Won
#0 (628) $1.00 $2,104.00 $25.00 $52,600.00
#25 (621) $1.00 $1,852.00 $25.00 $46,300.00
#29 (607) $1.00 $1,348.00 $25.00 $33,700.00
Total: $5,304.00 Total: $132,600.00
Our audits took approximately 48 days to reach 20,000 spins. Our roulette tables are open approximately 12 hours a day, with maybe 8 hours of play time per day. Meaning at a large resort with a wheel opened 24 hours and active play our 20,000 spin audit could be achieved in approximately two weeks. Two weeks worth of effort to pin-point a roulette wheel problem; not a bad couple weeks worth of work for a $132,600 profit. Now for the real big numbers; you go ahead and figure out the cost for one full year.
The graph above is an example of our comprehensive study and audit that was performed targeting a scope of 20,000 spins. As you can visually detect, we have a problem. The green line indicates a true average for the amount of times each number should hit. The red line indicates the actual hit pattern of our roulette wheel. Note the spikes for the numbers 0, 25, & 29. Also it is equally important to note the lack of hits or cold section between the numbers 17 and 3. This also creates an equally potential liability risk in the area of providing an unfair game to casino guests.
We are still studying and increasing our knowledge regarding what we believe to be a major or "extreme" wheel bias. The type of bias our wheel possesses is a rotary bias, meaning it involves the components that make the wheel spin. Although we do not have a defining reason for our wheel bias, we do have some theories.
1. We have noted a manufacture issue involving the cone, finding imperfections with the cone panels.
2. We have noted our wheel maintenance staff utilizing lateral bearings that are not from the roulette manufacturer.
3. We have noted small scratches and slight grooves upon the steel casing surrounding the cylinder or "wheel head".
These are just a few of the possibilities causing the bias of our roulette wheel.
There are numerous ways a biased wheel can be created. A bias can also be temporary or lasting. Finding a single reason for a bias may be virtually impossible. At the end of the day, casinos must follow the numbers, the patterns, and the possible risk factors when deciding the proper action. Throughout our study certain factors "numbers" did not disappear from being biased. This information assisted our conclusion that action was necessary regarding our wheel.
Our study still leaves many questions unanswered. Like how many spins are needed to reveal a bias? Are all wheels naturally biased to a degree? What is the life expectancy of a wheel? We have found that many elements can dictate a roulette wheel bias. We've also found that the best wheel maintenance (insuring a wheel is level) doesn't mean a wheel isn't biased. We've determined that the life wear of a roulette wheel or "time" probably does cost the casino money.
Roulette is one of the world's most popular casino games, yet as an industry, how much time or mind do we give the game? Our findings have shown that our roulette games haven't received the respect or attention they deserve. As a universal gaming commodity has roulette received your proper attention?
Will roulette be one of the most notable games for advantage play over the next five years? We think so if the casino industry doesn't take note and prepare soon. Just think, this topic was interesting enough for a staff of casino industry professionals to examine for the sole purpose of expanding our knowledge. Can you imagine the motivation for an advantage player with the possibility to make over $100,000 in two weeks?
We have pulled our roulette wheel head off the gaming floor. My apologies are extended to anyone wanting to visit our casino and take advantage for the big score. We urge the industry to ask: Is your wheel maintenance disproving, preventing or maybe even causing wheel bias? Is there a real industry standard? If there is a standard, what is it? Do you have an audit system in place to locate a biased wheel? Does it make sense?
At the end of the study we found that yes, we are biased. Our question is are you?
This project has been a learning experience for all involved. I fully understand the concept of wheel bias but by no means does this qualify me as an expert. We were lucky enough to recruit outside assistance into our wheel study. Industry leading consultants Mr. Bill Zender and Mr. Michael Barnett provided a helping hand to our investigative project offering perspectives and graphs to assist our efforts and help distinguish our level of bias as a problem. Also our boss, Mr. Carl Salter, Executive Director of the Gaming & Regulatory Commission allowed the project and believed in the surveillance department's abilities to research and still be able to provide the proper game protection. To all involved we greatly appreciate the help.
I hope you enjoy and appreciate the tremendous efforts of this staff and their efforts to bring this subject into the light for the casino industry. I also hope we can further this study through shared information while continuing to expand our knowledge and the casino industry's as a whole.
If you would like to make contact with our department or researchers, I will be the point of contact and can be reached at surveillance@sevenfeathers.com for questions, comment, or to share your knowledge and information with us. We look forward to any correspondence, insight, and the opportunity to establish more industry friends and allies in our ever present pursuit of providing high-level asset protection.
Jeff Murphy is the Surveillance Director
at Seven Feathers Hotel & Casino Resort
and has been involved in gaming for 13 years.
Roulette Wheel Bias Investigative Study Credits
Casino: Seven Feathers Hotel & Casino Resort
Department: Cow Creek Gaming & Regulatory Commission Surveillance
Lead Researchers: John Holcomb, Asst. Surveillance Supervisor
Melanie Pedersen, Surveillance Supervisor
Chris Hudgeon, Surveillance Operator
Researchers: Gary McCleary, Surveillance Supervisor
Jose Ramos, Surveillance Operator
Robert Shores, Surveillance Operator
Aaron Nemec, Surveillance Operator
Project Editor: Alicia Barney, Surveillance Manager
Project Leader: Jeff Murphy, Surveillance Director
Consultants: Bill Zender, Last Resort Consulting
Michael Barnett, Surveillance Technology
Willy Allison, World Game Protection, Inc
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"The Catwalk" is presented by World Game Protection, Inc. More articles can be found by visiting the archive at http://www.worldgameprotection.com/archive/. For more information about World Game Protection, please visit the Web site at WorldGameProtection.com. © 2006. World Game Protection, Inc.
ЗЫ: Постараюсь её литератерно перевести в течении недели.
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Но даже прочитав этот "корявый" перевод статьи, в принципе, понятно о чем идет речь. 