| Re: Симулируем помаленьку. ID:47137 ответ на 47136 |
Ср, 4 октября 2000 00:00 [#] |
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| Garry Baldy |
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Форумы Покер.ру
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Пардон, конечно. Я, очевидно, погорячился насчет 8,8. И даже симуляцию не надо было гонять - ответ очевиден. Мне почему-то в голову стукнули Hole Card правила. Правильный ответ - брать.
А насчет указанных (именно их) бонусов я прогнал в случае наличия саренды против всего. Приведу результат. Игра по БС, без индексов, ставки плоские. 100 млн. раздач. Один на один.
Вариант 1 (бонусов нет никаких): * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
* S T A T I S T I C A L B L A C K J A C K A N A L Y Z E R *
* Version 5.0.3, 1995-2000 *
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
****************************************************************************
Simulation started on (MM/DD/YY): 10-04-2000 at 10:56:20
Simulation finished on (MM/DD/YY): 10-04-2000 at 11:29:57
Random seed = 1234567890
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
* R U L E S & C O N D I T I O N S *
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
6 decks
Shufflepoint 234 cards, (75.00% penetration)
Face up game
Head on game
System used is basic strategy with basic strategy play
No true count conversion
Initial running count: -20
European rules - no hole card game
Early surrender is allowed
Dealer stands on all 17
Doubling is allowed on any two cards
Doubling is allowed after splitting
Hand can be split 9 times, up to 10 hands
Resplitting of aces is allowed
Only one card to split aces
Different tens can be split
Insurance is 1 half of a bet
****************************************************************************
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
* S I M U L A T I O N R E S U L T S *
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAIN STATISTICS:
Initial bet advantage: 0.15606%, St. Err. 0.003489%
Total bets advantage: 0.13977%
Estim. payoff per 100,000 rounds played is 156.06, with estim. std. 348.94
Average st. dev. per round: 1.10345
Av. std. per round per unit: 1.10345
Average bet per round: 1.00000
Average bet total: 1.11658
Insurance contribution: 0.00000%
Insurance contrib. to TBA: 0.00000%
Number of won sessions: 68016
Number of lost sessions: 52771
Total number of sessions: 120787
Percentage of won sessions: 56.3107%, St. Err. 0.14272%
Surplus bank: 36244.5
Number of shoes played: 22779993
Number of rounds played: 1000000016
Percentage of blackjack: 4.742%
Percentage of pushing: 8.353%
Percentage of hard doubling: 7.071%
Percentage of soft doubling: 1.711%
Percentage of splitting: 2.644%
Percentage of surrender: 10.761%
Percentage of insurance: 0.000%
Insurance advantage: No insurance taken
D E A L E R'S S T A T I S T I C S
Up card 17 18 19 20 21 BJ Bust
2 13.9709 13.4482 13.0099 12.3992 11.8389 -- 35.3329
3 13.4388 13.0630 12.5259 12.0850 11.4980 -- 37.3893
4 13.0648 12.4176 12.1350 11.6501 11.1897 -- 39.5427
5 12.1961 12.2598 11.7719 11.1801 10.7889 -- 41.8032
6 16.5761 10.6398 10.6505 10.1599 9.7279 -- 42.2457
7 36.8942 13.8027 7.8562 7.8738 7.3856 -- 26.1875
8 12.8992 35.9688 12.8822 6.9328 6.9486 -- 24.3685
9 12.0332 11.7390 35.1479 12.0478 6.0944 -- 22.9376
10 11.1948 11.1725 11.1982 33.9772 3.4869 7.7149 21.2555
ace 13.0159 13.0957 13.0633 13.0929 5.3620 30.8215 11.5487
How many cards the dealer ends up with (percentage distribution):
Cards: 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Perc.: 47.8437 34.6847 14.2970 2.8233 0.3264 0.0238 0.0011 0.0000 0.0000
Dealer's additional hits (percentage):
Card: 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ace
Perc.: 7.6462 7.6545 7.6598 7.6673 7.6780 7.7006 7.7032 7.7095 30.8704 7.7104
Вариант 2 (777 suited 5:1, 678 suited 3:1, причем я НЕ требовал, чтобы эта рука обязательно выиграла против дилерской):
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
* S T A T I S T I C A L B L A C K J A C K A N A L Y Z E R *
* Version 5.0.3, 1995-2000 *
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
****************************************************************************
Simulation started on (MM/DD/YY): 10-04-2000 at 11:51:19
Simulation finished on (MM/DD/YY): 10-04-2000 at 12:27:38
Random seed = 1234567890
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
* R U L E S & C O N D I T I O N S *
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
6 decks
Shufflepoint 234 cards, (75.00% penetration)
Face up game
Head on game
System used is basic strategy with basic strategy play
No true count conversion
Initial running count: -20
European rules - no hole card game
Early surrender is allowed
Dealer stands on all 17
Doubling is allowed on any two cards
Doubling is allowed after splitting
Hand can be split 9 times, up to 10 hands
Resplitting of aces is allowed
Only one card to split aces
Different tens can be split
Insurance is 1 half of a bet
ODD RULES AND/OR SPECIAL BONUSES:
Suited 777 pays 10:2
Suited 678 pays 6:2
777 pays 2:2
678 pays 2:2
No leaving the shoe at any count
****************************************************************************
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
* S I M U L A T I O N R E S U L T S *
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAIN STATISTICS:
Initial bet advantage: 0.18963%, St. Err. 0.003490%
Total bets advantage: 0.15919%
Estim. payoff per 100,000 rounds played is 189.63, with estim. std. 349.02
Average st. dev. per round: 1.10371
Av. std. per round per unit: 1.10371
Average bet per round: 1.00000
Average bet total: 1.11659
Insurance contribution: 0.00000%
Insurance contrib. to TBA: 0.00000%
Number of won sessions: 69367
Number of lost sessions: 51955
Total number of sessions: 121322
Percentage of won sessions: 57.1759%, St. Err. 0.14206%
Surplus bank: 36379.5
Number of shoes played: 22777561
Number of rounds played: 999995058
Percentage of blackjack: 4.742%
Percentage of pushing: 8.349%
Percentage of hard doubling: 7.072%
Percentage of soft doubling: 1.711%
Percentage of splitting: 2.644%
Percentage of surrender: 10.762%
Percentage of insurance: 0.000%
Insurance advantage: No insurance taken
D E A L E R'S S T A T I S T I C S
Up card 17 18 19 20 21 BJ Bust
2 13.9764 13.4475 13.0009 12.4069 11.8361 -- 35.3323
3 13.4410 13.0575 12.5246 12.0859 11.4870 -- 37.4039
4 13.0626 12.4148 12.1347 11.6412 11.1928 -- 39.5540
5 12.2067 12.2563 11.7723 11.1848 10.7867 -- 41.7932
6 16.5793 10.6334 10.6567 10.1602 9.7311 -- 42.2393
7 36.8957 13.7991 7.8572 7.8705 7.3877 -- 26.1898
8 12.8991 35.9710 12.8825 6.9308 6.9540 -- 24.3627
9 12.0317 11.7483 35.1600 12.0400 6.0920 -- 22.9280
10 11.1985 11.1743 11.2006 33.9710 3.4859 7.7170 21.2528
ace 13.0184 13.0920 13.0621 13.0923 5.3585 30.8289 11.5478
How many cards the dealer ends up with (percentage distribution):
Cards: 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Perc.: 47.8899 34.6484 14.2878 2.8222 0.3266 0.0239 0.0011 0.0000 0.0000
Dealer's additional hits (percentage):
Card: 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ace
Perc.: 7.6458 7.6522 7.6607 7.6670 7.6765 7.7011 7.7028 7.7078 30.8735 7.7128
Как видно, прибавка получилась около 0,03%. Обалдеть можно! Совет: даже не думать об изменении БС при таких бонусах. Однако если включить разномастки, получится больше. Потом, может, просимулирую.
Удачи.
Garry Baldy.
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